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“短缺”是铜价上升轨迹达到新高的关键因素

作者:tongwj来源:长江有色金属网网址:http://www.ccmn.cn

铜价已升至每吨1万美元的心理关口。由于未来几个月出现短缺,预计铜价的上涨势头将持续下去。

价已升至每吨1万美元的心理关口。由于未来几个月出现短缺,预计铜价的上涨势头将持续下去。

对供应紧张的预期,以及对电动汽车等能源转型应用以及人工智能和自动化等新技术的需求前景的乐观情绪,最近提振了铜价。

制造业活动的回升,尤其是在消费大国中国,采购经理人调查已经开始显示扩张,这也促进了对铜的热情,本周铜触及两年高点每吨9,988美元,自10月初以来上涨了25%。

去年,加拿大矿商First Quantum在巴拿马的Cobre矿关闭,引发了铜精矿短缺的前景,导致铜价加速上涨。铜精矿是金属原料。

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence分析师Piotr Ortonowski表示:“总的现实是,由于矿山中断,我们已经损失了100万吨供应,工业周期已经出现拐点。”

“在新矿供应投资不足的背景下,能源转型的长期需求情况仍未改变。”

铜价上涨的部分原因是,在制造业活动萎缩导致中国需求前景明显黯淡之际,空头押注铜价下跌的行为发生了逆转。

一位铜交易商表示:“过去几周,铜价上涨非常快,我们预计会出现回调。”

伦敦金属交易所(LME)的铜价目前约为每吨9,644美元。

美国、欧洲和其他地区的降息也为增长和需求提供了潜力。

铜行业消息人士表示,LME批准的仓库和上海期货交易所(Shanghai Futures Exchange)监管的仓库库存将很快出现紧张供应。

Valent Asset Management投资组合经理杰伊•塔图姆(Jay Tatum)表示,铜金属稀缺将是铜价能否维持并“走高”的真正考验。

“铜正在从一个做出许多承诺的投资故事,转变为其中一些承诺开始兑现的故事——整个经济中的铜使用强度上升、供应方面的挑战、精矿供应紧张以及制造业长期放缓后的补充库存效应。”


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新疆西部海新进出口贸易有限公司成立于2019年。是一家集国际进出口贸易、农副产品加工与生产、农业机械设备生产和销售及可再生资源回收再利用生产于一体的综合性企业。

Xinjiang Xibu Haixin Import and Export Trade Co., Ltd. was established in 2019. It is a comprehensive enterprise with businesses of international import and export trade, processing and produce of agricultural and sideline products, production and sales of agricultural machinery, and recycling and reuse of Renewable resource.

自公司成立以来一直着力打造全球化的采购供应链,现已与中亚、俄罗斯、非洲及巴西淡水河谷地区众多大型矿业集团达成战略合作协议。大宗矿产品的销售品系包含:电解铜、铁矿石、铜精粉、石油焦等。年销售规模自成立以来逐年稳步增长2022年已初步达成32亿人民币的销售规模。

Since its establishment, the company has been striving to build a global procurement supply chain, and has reached strategic cooperation agreements with many large mining groups in Central Asia, Russia, Africa and Brazil's Vale region. Sales of bulk mineral products include copper cathodes, iron ore, copper concentrate powder, Petroleum coke, etc. The annual sales volume has steadily increased year by year since its establishment. It has initially reached a sales volume of 3.2 billion RMB since 2022.

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2022年公司依托海外地区资源优势陆续完成了面粉加工企业、农业机械生产企业的投资与建设,并在运转初期就取得了骄人的业绩。公司面粉加工企业坐落于新疆边境霍尔果斯市综合保税区。现已与越南地区国企签定预采购面粉合同20000吨,销售金额将达到3.5亿人民币,累计小麦加工能力预计将达到50000, 年销售金额达6亿人民币。

In 2022, the company has successively completed the investment and construction of flour processing enterprises and agricultural machinery production enterprises based on the advantages of overseas resources, and has achieved impressive performance in the early stages of operation. The flour processing factory affiliated to the company is located in the comprehensive bonded area of Khorgas City, which is the border of Xinjiang. We have signed a pre- purchase flour contract with state-owned enterprises in Vietnam for 20000 tons, with a sales amount of 350 million RMB. The cumulative wheat processing capacity is expected to reach 50000 tons, with an annual sales amount of 600 million RMB.

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农业机械生产企业与澳大利亚等发达地区农业机械销售商累计签定定单达到1500000澳元。年预计完成出口产品达150台。预计年度销售规模将达到1.6亿人民币。

Agricultural machinery factory have signed cumulative orders with agricultural machinery sellers in developed regions such as Australia, reaching 1500000AUD. It is expected to complete the export of 150 units of machines annually. It is expected that the annual sales scale will reach 160 million RMB.


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当前,公司正以国家产业政策为指引,以自身全球采购供应链为优势和产业融合为契机,以产业化做精,多元化做强为目标,在新疆各级政府政策和上下游企业的支持下,依靠一支团结奋进、开拓创新的团队,一定能够把公司建设成为璀璨的企业之星。

At present, the company is guided by national industrial policies, taking its global procurement supply chain as an advantage and industrial integration as an opportunity, with the goal of becoming more meticulous and diversified in industrialization. With the support of government policies at all levels in Xinjiang and upstream and downstream enterprises, relying on a unity, progress, and innovative team, the company is bound to become a shining star of enterprises.

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